How I Come to My Conclusions

In a recent blog ‘9 Things You Need to Know About Coronavirus’ published on Feb 26^th , I made several predictions about how Covid-19 would play out. I released this as ‘Case 0’ was being diagnosed in Solano County, CA, when there were well under 100 cases in the U.S.

Many of the things I predicted have already come true, such as experts believing there are many more cases than being reported due to lack of testing, the virus being nearly impossible to contain due to its exponential growth rate, the markets reacting vehemently and finally, the spread of Covid19 combined with a recession (which I actually believe is going to be a depression) resulting in the left gaining political ground. 

I did the same thing in with respect to the poker world in a piece titled ‘3 Ways Coronavirus Will Disrupt the Poker Industry’, and called for lack of demand, market pullbacks and poker rooms closing.

All three happened in less than a month.

I’m not Nostradamus, nor am I a researcher or virologist. So, how was I able to see all of this play out?

First, I’ve made my living for the past 15 years by betting on what other people think and how they will react (especially under pressure or stressful circumstances). I’ve done this through a card game called Texas Hold’em, but the skillset of understanding one’s psychological and emotional states and how that will influence their behavior, is highly translatable to other areas of life.

Now, I’m simply using those skills and applying them on a macro scale, such as how governments and their citizens will react to world events, like Covid-19 for example.

Second, I am currently staying in Italy which is akin to living in the future. Having the foresight to see what is already transpiring here helps me understand how things are likely to transpire elsewhere. (FYI: I’ve been living in self isolation for more than 4 weeks).

Third, I dive deep into things before coming out with these posts. For example, I’ve spent nearly every productive hour on Covid-19 for the past 6 weeks. That doesn’t make me an expert, but I do diligently read what they are saying.

As a result, my opinions are based on the medical consensus of what people like Marc Lipsitch, Scott Gottlieb, Nicholas Christakis, and others are saying. (You can follow me on Twitter as I curate the best of what I read and share it there).

The same can be said about my recent passion project of understanding global macro trends and cycles, which begun in 2013, took a hiatus and has now been ongoing for roughly a year. My ideas are my own but wouldn’t be possible without the insights from experts such as Ray Dalio, Raoul Pal, Harry Dent, Rick Rule, Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney and many more.

This is my process for every subject I tackle. I find the people who know what they’re talking about, listen to opinions on all sides, then formulate my own ideas. It’s what helped me to reach the top of the poker world.

Finally, everyone has their own unique super power. I believe mine to be the ability to quickly put the pieces together and understand the big picture. I then do my best to make it simple for others to grasp as well.

I tell you this because I want to be fully transparent about how I come to my conclusions so you understand them for what they are, and can give them the credence you feel they deserve.
Ultimately, you’ll bet on what you believe to be true.

Nothing I say is financial advice. I encourage you to do your own research, read through the sources I quote in all my articles and, most importantly, think for yourself.

I disagree with many of the people whom I respect most, and that strong confidence in my own convictions has largely served me well in life. Of course, when it’s crosses the fine line to arrogance (which it has many times), I’ve paid the price. I likely will again in the future.

Therefore, I ask you to formulate your own ideas, and encourage you to pick apart mine with constructive criticism. Personally, I love being wrong because I view it as an opportunity for growth and to learn something new. I’m not certain of anything that I say, except that some of it will inevitably not play out in the way I believe it will. I will happily admit when I am incorrect and, should I bet on my hypothesizes, I fully expect to get punished for it.

To me, that’s part of the game, and I love the journey more than the outcome. I view ‘winning’ in life the same way I do in poker in that it’s a result of doing one’s ‘job’ correctly. One’s goal should be to make good decisions with the incomplete information they have available to them. Those who do so consistently and over time will come out ahead. That’s what I’m striving to do on a macro level.

I’m just beginning my journey, and if poker has taught me one thing, it’s that the game is far more complex that it seems on the surface. I am fully aware that the things I don’t know far exceed the things I do know, and it will be that way until I die. Therefore, please take what I say with two grains of salt.  

If this resonates with you and you’d like to hear more about my ideas, I invite you to subscribe to my blog to stay tuned when future posts become available.

I only email my list once per week in a curated newsletter called ‘Crush Mondays’. It features an insiders only update into what I’m up to, my best content from the week, new things I’ve learned, and actionable life hacks, all bundled into one place. I throw in a poker tip or two here and there as well.

Thanks for your support.

Alec ♠️